The US appears increasingly faced with an unwanted coalition of opponent states. The question is how to deal with that situation. Daniel Drezner of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy has just published some helpful thoughts on the matter.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/03/19/us-china-russia-relations-00087633
Drezner is surely right in arguing that the US should seek to prevent the emerging coalition of China, Russia, and Iran (plus, potentially North Korea) from hardening into a solid political, economic, and military alliance of hostile forces. He concludes that “given the unsteady state of the world, repairing the Sino-American relationship is the option that offers the most promise.” This is, undoubtedly, a reasonable proposal. but is it a realistic one? Drezner understands that it is an option that both President Joe Biden and his Republican opponents are unlikely to embrace in the current unstable state of American politics.
But it is not only the condition of American politics that makes a rapprochement with China difficult to achieve. For it is far from clear that China’s president Xi Jinping would allow his coalition-building with Russia and Iran to be interrupted. For economic reasons, it would certainly be in the interest of China to keep its relations with the US and its allies on course. But are economic considerations first and foremost in Xi’s mind? Xi’s words may suggest that they are, but the evidence of his actions speaks differently. They reveal, instead, a great deal of belligerence on Xi’s part driven by his ideological commitments rather than utilitarian calculations.